SF GATE
I
July 29, 2025
California's housing market defies US slump
Alarm bells are ringing about the U.S. housing market as economists warn of slumping home sales and house prices that keep rising. But those warnings may not apply to California.
The state is vast and housing markets vary by region, but on average, the major metros in California aren’t experiencing the same slumps as the rest of the country. In parts of the Bay Area, home sales have even reached their highest levels since the peak of the pandemic housing boom, according to data from Compass.
Typically, the U.S. housing market peaks in the spring, but this year, it was tempered by a sagging stock market and the uncertainty of looming tariffs. Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Compass Bay Area, said even despite a lot of economic uncertainty, much of the Bay Area is bucking the trend of the tumbling nationwide housing market. “The South Bay is one of the strongest markets in the country. Maybe it’s the strongest because of the AI boom,” Carlisle said.
He said the concentration of wealth brought by tech companies is helping the luxury sector perform particularly well, though he notes that that segment of buyers is often unaffected by mortgage rates. In the South Bay in the second quarter of the year, sales of homes priced at $5 million and above soared to their highest number since the peak of the pandemic homebuying boom, and home sale prices were up year over year in affluent markets like Atherton, Hillsborough and Menlo Park.
San Francisco had a similarly successful second quarter relative to the rest of the country. Median home sales were up 8% from the first quarter of the year and up 3.5% since the same time period in 2024. Even the condo market, which had been struggling since the pandemic, was up 10% year over year according to Compass data.
“The Bay Area is still one of the richest, most educated, most diverse areas in the world. Its housing market has a tendency to continue to chug along,” Carlisle said.