As of October 2025, San Francisco's real estate market is surging, driven by an AI startup boom, with house sales at their highest since May 2022 and luxury home sales up 44% year-over-year. Despite low consumer confidence, 80% of house sales exceeded list prices. The market may defy seasonal slowdowns, with significant buyer demand against dwindling listings.
The San Francisco luxury market is experiencing rapid growth and high demand. Key trends include:
- Record Sales: October 2025 saw the highest monthly number of $5 million+ home sales in four years, up 44% compared to October 2024.
- Stock Market Influence: The rise in luxury home sales correlates with soaring stock market values, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs.
- Buyer Competition: Luxury homes are selling quickly, with 68% of sales in the $2M-$3M range closing above list price and an average sales price 8% over the original list price.
- Seasonal Activity: Luxury home sales typically peak in spring and fall, with October 2025 reflecting strong seasonal demand.
- Limited Inventory: The supply of luxury homes remains constrained, with higher price segments showing longer inventory durations (e.g., 10 months for $10M+ homes).
These trends highlight a competitive and thriving luxury market in San Francisco.
Recent changes in buyer behavior in the San Francisco luxury market include:
- Increased Overbidding: Buyers are competing aggressively, with 68% of sales in the $2M-$3M range closing above list price and an average sales price 8% over the original list price.
- Stock Market Influence: Affluent buyers, benefiting from substantial stock market gains, are driving demand for luxury homes.
- Cash Purchases: All-cash purchases remain a significant force, especially among high-wealth buyers and investors.
- Seasonal Trends: Buyers are more active in peak seasons like spring and fall, as reflected in October 2025's record luxury home sales.
- Demand for Larger Homes: Appreciation rates for larger luxury homes (4000–6000 sq. ft.) have doubled compared to median-sized homes since 2023, indicating a preference for spacious properties.
These behaviors reflect heightened competition and demand in the luxury market, influenced by economic conditions and stock market performance.
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