San Francisco real estate market report Q1 2025

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – April 2025

The latest Compass report provides a comprehensive overview of the San Francisco housing market, highlighting key trends and insights through March 2025. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the market shows mixed signals, with declining mortgage rates, a rebound in luxury home sales, and increased overbidding activity. However, challenges persist, including year-over-year declines in median house and condo prices and rising price reductions. Dive into the report for a detailed analysis of housing prices, sales volume, population trends, and more.

_{Numbers pertaining to closed-sales data in this report mostly reflect market conditions that predate the most dramatic of recent financial developments. (Because of the typical 3 to 6 week time lapse between deals being made, i.e. listings going into contract, and sales closing escrow, sales data is a lagging indicator of market trends.) The quantifiable, hard-data effects of these new circumstances, should they continue, will come into better focus in coming weeks and months.}

Market Volatility and Uncertainty: Political and economic conditions in 2025 have been highly volatile, impacting consumer confidence and financial markets. This uncertainty is not favorable for housing markets.
Interest Rates Decline: Mortgage interest rates have started to decline, with the 30-year conforming loan rate at 6.64% as of April 3, 2025, the lowest since October 2024.

San Francisco Median Prices: The Q1 2025 median house sales price increased from Q4 2024 but was down 2% year-over-year. Median condo prices declined by 9.5% year-over-year.

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Luxury Market Performance: Luxury home sales ($5M+) surged in March 2025, doubling compared to March 2024. Luxury condo and co-op sales ($2.5M+) also increased year-over-year.

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Overbidding Trends: 60% of home sales closed above the list price in March 2025, with houses seeing 79% overbidding and condos at 42%.
Population Trends: San Francisco's population rebounded slightly in 2023-2024, driven by positive foreign migration and more births than deaths, despite negative domestic migration.
Active Listings Growth: Active listings on April 1, 2025, increased by 7% year-over-year, with 27.5% being houses and 72.5% condos, co-ops, TICs, and townhouses.
Sales Volume Increase: March 2025 home sales volume rose 20% compared to March 2024, with houses accounting for 44.5% of sales and condos/co-ops/TICs for 55.5%.
Price Reductions: The number of price reductions on active listings in March 2025 increased by 10% year-over-year, reflecting market adjustments.
Housing Affordability Challenges: San Francisco remains one of the least affordable markets in the Bay Area, with low homeownership rates and high median prices.