Top 5 Spring 2025 Market Trends in the Bay Area
1. Strong Buyer Demand for Turnkey Homes
-
Single-family homes in prime locations and move-in-ready condition continue to sell quickly, often with multiple offers.
-
78% of house sales closed over list price in April, with an average of 14% above asking.
-
Average days on market for houses was just 24 days, indicating a highly competitive segment.
2. Economic Volatility Creates Buyer Hesitancy
-
Despite strong demand in some segments, consumer confidence dropped in April due to financial market volatility and political uncertainty.
-
Buyers are more selective and cautious, particularly around pricing and property condition.
3. Inventory Growth is Modest in SF Compared to Region
-
San Francisco’s listing inventory rose only 9% year-over-year, much less than other Bay Area counties that saw 70%+ increases.
-
This limited increase has helped insulate the SF market from larger slowdowns elsewhere.
4. Condo Market Remains Softer Than House Market
-
Absorption rate for condos was 20%, compared to 36% for houses, indicating slower demand.
-
Only 35% of condo sales went over asking, with an average of 0.5% above list price — far below the house market.
-
Condos averaged 50 days on market, more than double that of houses.
5. Luxury Market is Highly Seasonal, and Mixed in Performance
-
$5M+ house sales dropped 40% year-over-year in April 2025, reflecting buyer caution at the ultra-luxury level.
-
However, luxury condo/co-op sales ($2.5M+) surged in April to their highest monthly count since May 2022.
Key Insights: San Francisco Condo Market
-
Median condo prices are down ~4% YOY (despite a jump from March).
-
Downtown/South of Market condos continue to lag behind non-downtown areas, highlighting ongoing preference for more neighborhood-style settings.
-
Price softness is compounded by longer time on market, higher inventory, and less competitive bidding.
Key Insights: San Francisco Luxury Market
-
The house luxury segment ($5M+) is cooling, with fewer sales and buyer restraint, especially for homes not perceived as “best in class.”
-
Luxury condos saw a rebound this spring, with April 2025 sales at a multi-year high, possibly boosted by easing stock market concerns or renewed interest in city living.
-
The market remains hyper-seasonal, with spring typically the strongest time for high-end activity.
Source: Compass | San Francisco May 2025 Market Report (Data through April 2025)
EXTRACT FROM MAY MARKET REPORT - LINK TO FULL REPORT HERE
San Francisco value trends since 2005
Median $/sq.ft. value is higher for houses (white line) than for condo.
San Francisco Homes market
Active and coming soon listing on 1st of Month. Number of news listings in April was same as last year.
Montly sales volume
Sales volume in April increased slightly from March, but declined 6% year over year.
San Francisco luxury house sales
Houses selling for $5M+ since 2020
Luxury sales dropped back in April, declined 40% year over year. The luxury home market is very seasonal: high in spring slow in the summer, rebounding in the fall. Sales in one month reflect accepted offers in previous month.
Read Complete Market Report Here
Looking Ahead:
Just this past week, I put three more listings into contract: a stunning $9M home in Pacific Heights, a beautifully updated $3M condo, and a $2.5M gem in Corte Madera. With about a month left in the spring market, I’m energized by the momentum and feeling genuinely optimistic about what’s ahead this summer.
If you're considering a move this year—let's connect to talk strategy, timing, and how to make the most of today’s opportunities. As always, thank you for trusting me as your real estate advisor and advocate.
All the best,
Max Armour
San Francisco Real Estate Advisor
