Marin County
Real Estate Report
Spring demand continues to build — despite geopolitical headwinds, buyers are moving with conviction and inventory is tightening across most price segments.
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Median sold price
$1.865M
↑ 2.2% yr/yr
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Under contract
256
↑ 28% yr/yr
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Days on market
15
Unchanged yr/yr
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Median $/sq ft
$945
↑ 5.2% yr/yr
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Homes sold (Apr)
217
↑ 15% yr/yr
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Sold over asking
45%
Highest since spring '25
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Shrugging off headwinds,
spring takes hold
Despite a volatile backdrop — rising interest rates tied to the Iran war, soaring oil prices, and financial market swings — Marin County's real estate market entered spring 2026 with clear momentum. The effects of these external pressures landed more heavily on less expensive, rate-sensitive markets than on Marin's affluent segments, which have proven resilient once again.
New listings surged 12% year over year in March 2026. Homes went into contract faster, and price reductions fell 16% compared to March 2025. As of April 8th, a ceasefire announcement brought virtually all economic indicators moving in positive directions.
The spring signal: In March 2026, 45% of all homes sold over their asking price — the highest overbidding rate since spring 2025. The average sale closed at roughly 1% above the original list price, up from well below asking in mid-winter. Both the absorption rate and number of listings going into contract surged from February to March.
As has been the case for two consecutive years, affluent markets remained more competitive than less expensive segments, and the single-family market considerably stronger than condos. This dynamic is expected to persist through the second quarter.
Median prices across
Marin's sub-markets
There is enormous variation across Marin's communities — from entry-level access in Novato and Fairfax to ultra-premium pricing in Belvedere, Tiburon, and Ross. The chart below reflects 12-month median sales prices through mid-March 2026.
Value per square foot: Stinson Beach leads the county at $2,631/sq ft, reflecting small homes on exceptional land. Belvedere follows at $1,884/sq ft and Ross at $1,423/sq ft. Mill Valley and Kentfield both sit around $1,072–$1,095/sq ft. Novato, at $608/sq ft, offers among the best per-square-foot value in the county.
Prices stabilize,
momentum building for Q2
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median house price held flat at approximately $1.70M. However, the dollar-per-square-foot value rose about 1.5%, suggesting the market is absorbing slightly smaller homes at stronger per-foot values. Median price appreciation historically accelerates in Q2 (spring) — which bodes well for May and June.
The market peaked at $2M median in Q2 2022 during the height of the pandemic boom. Since then, prices have settled into a more sustainable range — the current trajectory suggests renewed appreciation is likely in the second quarter of 2026 as spring demand absorbs available inventory.
What's selling —
and at what price
In 2026 year-to-date, houses represent 74% of all closed sales, condos 17%, and townhouses 9%. The largest share of sales (31%) came from homes priced under $1M — but 66% of those sub-$1M transactions were condos and townhouses, not single-family homes.
Active listings as of April 1, 2026 stood at 435 — slightly higher than a year ago. Inventory is expected to continue rising through summer, which will give buyers incrementally more choice. That said, by national standards, Marin's months supply of inventory remains extremely low — confirming this as a seller's market at most price points.
74% of active listings priced under $1M are condos and townhouses. Single-family homes dominate above $1.5M.
Affluent segments
remain the most competitive
For two consecutive years, the upper tier of Marin's market has outperformed more affordable segments. Homes priced $4M+ show a classic seasonal pattern — peaking in spring, bottoming in mid-winter — and March 2026 activity signals the market is warming up for a strong spring season in the luxury tier.
The highest individual sales over the past 12 months, by town:
Why affluent markets hold up: Wealthy buyers are less rate-sensitive and more equity-driven. As U.S. equity markets recovered sharply in 2025 — with the Nasdaq and S&P both posting double-digit gains — household wealth in high-income ZIP codes rebounded significantly. That wealth effect flows directly into Marin's premium market. Even as broader sentiment fluctuates with geopolitical news, well-priced exceptional homes continue to attract multiple offers.
Rates, geopolitics,
and what it means for buyers
The Iran war, which began in early 2026, pushed 30-year conforming mortgage rates from approximately 5.98% up to 6.46% by early April — a meaningful jump that added cost for rate-sensitive buyers. Oil prices surged past $110/barrel before the ceasefire announced April 7, 2026 brought relief. The ceasefire is expected to exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, though this had not yet materialized fully at the time of this report.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index rose in 2026, but the increase tied to the Iran conflict has been considerably more muted than the extreme spike seen during the 2025 tariff shock. Marin's market has weathered this uncertainty better than most Bay Area sub-markets — a testament to the structural strength of demand here.
Marin's population has drifted down since a 2020 peak of approximately 261,300, settling at ~253,700 as of mid-2025. Since the pandemic: net domestic out-migration of roughly 15,150, partially offset by foreign migration and natural growth. A declining population is typically a demand-dampening factor — but in Marin, the income profile of those who remain, and those moving in, supports continued housing demand at the upper end.
Bottom line for buyers and sellers
Marin is a competitive, supply-constrained market accelerating into its seasonally strongest quarter. Sellers listing well-priced homes in May and June historically see peak absorption and the highest rates of overbidding. Buyers who wait for rates to drop may find themselves competing against more buyers than today — with the same limited inventory. The data strongly favors decisiveness in spring 2026.
