Marin Market Report 2026
Five Key Takeaways from the Marin County Real Estate Market
1. 2025 Market Overview
The Marin County market in 2025 cooled modestly from the pace of 2024, with median single-family home prices finishing the year essentially flat. That said, Marin continued to outperform many surrounding markets. Affluent buyers remained active, supported by equity gains and easing rates, while more price-sensitive segments faced headwinds from inflation and affordability constraints.
2. Interest Rates & Capital Markets Matter
By January 2026, mortgage rates had drifted down to roughly 6.16%, near multi-year lows, which immediately translated into renewed buyer engagement. At the same time, equity markets rebounded sharply in the second half of 2025, reaching new highs. The resulting increase in household wealth and confidence disproportionately benefited high-quality, lifestyle-driven markets like Marin.
3. Luxury and Ultra-Luxury Performance
Luxury held steady; ultra-luxury regained momentum.
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$5M+ sales: 120 transactions in 2025, unchanged year-over-year.
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$10M+ sales: 17 transactions in 2025, up significantly from just 6 in 2024.
This rebound at the top end signals renewed conviction among high-net-worth buyers and confirms that well-located, best-in-class properties continue to command attention and capital.
4. Inventory & Listing Activity
New listings rose more than 9% in 2025 compared to 2024, giving buyers slightly more choice as the year progressed. However, as is typical seasonally, total inventory fell to its annual low by January 1, 2026. In practical terms, properly priced homes entering the market early in the year are meeting a relatively thin supply environment.
5. Market Velocity & Buyer Demand
Despite a calmer headline market, activity levels remained healthy:
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Absorption rate: ~30% of listings accepted offers in 2025.
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Median days on market: 27 days.
These metrics reflect a market that is selective—but decisive—where quality, pricing discipline, and presentation matter more than ever.
For buyers evaluating Marin today, three data views are particularly useful:
1. Median Prices & $5M+ Sales by City/Town
This provides a clear snapshot of value ranges across sub-markets and highlights where premium sales are actually occurring—not just where they are listed.
2. 2025 Home Sales by Price Segment
A breakdown by price and property type shows where competition is most concentrated and where opportunities may be emerging, especially for buyers willing to act decisively.
3. Active & Coming-Soon Listings (Start of Month)
Inventory trends and seasonal patterns help buyers time their entry, anticipate competition, and position themselves ahead of broader market shifts.
Bottom line: Marin remains a fundamentally strong, lifestyle-driven market. While pricing has stabilized, demand—particularly at the upper end—is very real. For both buyers and sellers, strategy, timing, and local expertise are increasingly decisive in 2026.
--> Read more in below January Real Estate Report:
Whether you are looking to trade up, invest in the AI boom, or simply want a tailored valuation of your home in this new market, I am always here to provide the insight you need to succeed.
Best,
Max Armour Luxury Real Estate Advisor
Compass | San Francisco & Marin County
MaxArmour.com Over $2 Billion in Sales | Top 1% of SF Agent
