The numbers are in for February — and they are extraordinary.
Luxury home sales rose over 200% year over year in February, setting an all-time record for the month. The median house price hit $1,963,000 — up nearly 23% from a year ago. Inventory is down 29% year over year and still falling relative to demand. We are, by several credible measures, in possibly the hottest housing market in the country right now.
That momentum is carrying directly into spring. Buyers who paused through the holiday season re-entered with force in January and February, and they are finding far fewer homes to compete for than last year. The result: ferocious bidding, faster closings, and prices that are climbing month over month. Houses are selling on average 16.5% above their list price. Even condos — long the laggard — are selling 4.5% over asking.
The one wildcard I'm watching closely: the Iran war has sent oil prices sharply higher and pushed mortgage rates up modestly from their recent low of 6% to around 6.14%. Barring an extreme economic deterioration, the impact on SF housing is likely to be limited — but it's worth monitoring, and I'll keep you posted as the picture evolves.
If you're thinking about making a move this spring — buying, selling, or both — this is the time to have that conversation. Reach out anytime for a private market briefing on your neighborhood or property.
— Max Armour · (415) 290-6058 · maxarmour.com
SAN FRANCISCO · 5 KEY NUMBERS
1. MEDIAN HOUSE SALE PRICE (FEBRUARY)
$1,963,000 — up 23% year over year
3-month rolling median: $1,750,000 (+16% YoY)
Prices are surging back toward 2022 peak levels and typically rise further through spring.
2. MEDIAN CONDO SALE PRICE (FEBRUARY)
$1,225,000 — up 12% year over year
3-month rolling median: $1,137,500 (+8% YoY)
After years of lagging, SF condos are now appreciating rapidly. Non-downtown neighborhoods are leading, and even the broader downtown market is improving meaningfully.
3. AVERAGE SALE PRICE VS. LIST PRICE
+10% over asking — the highest reading since spring 2022
Houses averaged 16.5% over list price. Condos averaged 4.5% over list. 64% of all sales in February closed above asking price.
4. LUXURY HOME SALES ($5M+)
+220% vs. February 2025 — the highest month-of-February count ever recorded
Spring and fall are typically the strongest luxury seasons. With this kind of momentum heading into spring, 2026 is shaping up to be an exceptional year at the high end.
5. ACTIVE LISTINGS & MONTHS OF SUPPLY
732 active listings as of March 1, 2026 — down 29% year over year
Months Supply of Inventory for 2BR and 3BR houses: just 0.8 months. The absorption rate in February 2026 was 60% higher than February 2025. Buyers are consuming listings faster than sellers are creating them.
SAN FRANCISCO · 5 KEY INSIGHTS
1. Possibly the Hottest Market in the Country
Soaring buyer demand vs. extremely inadequate supply is creating ferocious competition, faster sales, more overbidding, and rapidly rising prices. San Francisco has shifted from the weakest Bay Area market to one of the strongest in the nation — driven by the AI boom, renewed city confidence, and a wave of well-capitalized buyers.
2. House Prices Surging Back Toward 2022 Peaks
The February single-month median house price of $1,963,000 rose nearly 23% year over year. Median prices typically peak in spring — if that pattern holds in 2026, we may challenge or exceed prior highs this year.
3. Condos Are Rebounding Rapidly
After years of lagging houses, SF condos are now appreciating quickly: up 12% YoY in February. Non-downtown neighborhoods are leading the recovery, though the broader market is trending firmly in the right direction.
4. Luxury Is on Fire — Record February for $5M+ Sales
February 2026 luxury closings came in 220% above February 2025 — the highest month-of-February count ever. Spring is historically the strongest luxury season, and the pipeline looks exceptionally strong heading in.
5. The Iran War & Oil Prices Are the Wild Card
Rates ticked up modestly from 6.0% to ~6.14% after hostilities began, and oil has surged toward $90/barrel. A major negative impact on SF housing is considered unlikely barring extreme economic deterioration — but this is the variable worth watching most closely in the months ahead.
MARIN COUNTY · MARKET UPDATE · DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY 2026
Marin is accelerating into spring. The number of sales in February jumped 30% year over year. Listings going into contract surged well above last year's pace. Price reductions fell 15% compared to a year ago. The market is heating up quickly — and with inventory 13% below last year's already-lean levels, buyers entering now are competing for a limited pool of properties.
The headline price metric tells a more measured story: the 3-month rolling median house price rose just 1.5% year over year. Context matters, though. Larger, more premium homes are appreciating most — the 3,500+ sq ft segment saw values rise 3%, while entry-level sizes dipped modestly. South Marin commands a meaningful premium over North Marin, reflecting the persistent lifestyle and school quality advantages of those sub-markets.
MARIN COUNTY · 5 KEY NUMBERS
1. MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE APPRECIATION
+1.5% year over year (3-month rolling)
Dollar-per-square-foot values are essentially flat overall, with the largest homes (3,500+ sq ft) up 3%. Spring typically brings the year's price peak.
2. MONTHLY SALES VOLUME
+30% year over year in February 2026
Listings going into contract also came in significantly higher year over year — a strong leading indicator of continued momentum heading into spring.
3. SOUTH MARIN MEDIAN PRICES (12-month, Ross/Kentfield to Sausalito)
3BR/2BA house: $1,700,000
4BR/3BA house: $2,297,500
Dollar per square foot: $1,052 (3BR) · $1,104 (4BR) — among the highest values in the entire Bay Area.
4. NORTH MARIN MEDIAN PRICES (12-month, San Rafael/San Anselmo to Novato)
3BR/2BA house: $1,210,000
4BR/3BA house: $1,450,000
Active listings as of March 1, 2026: 309 — down 13% year over year. Months Supply of Inventory for 3BR houses: just 1.0 month.
5. OVERBIDDING & MARKET HEAT
43% of Marin sales closed over list price in February, rebounding sharply from the January seasonal low. Price reductions fell 15% year over year — sellers are holding firm. The $4M+ luxury market is at its seasonal low and historically surges dramatically in spring.
Marin remains one of the Bay Area's most fundamentally sound markets — combining elite school districts, lifestyle amenity, and constrained supply. For both buyers and sellers, spring 2026 looks set to be decisive.
─────────────────────────────────────────────
FULL REPORTS
─────────────────────────────────────────────
For complete neighborhood-by-neighborhood data, price trend charts, and supply/demand analysis, access the full Compass market reports below:
→ San Francisco Full Report:
https://www.compass.com/marketing-center/editor/v2/flipbook/934cb09b-0e29-4946-b4f8-cf1bda852147?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=639361753a31090001f06a04&utm_source=5b647f2e32e833402fbf8223&abe=0&agent_id=5b647f2e32e833402fbf8223
→ Marin County Full Report:
https://www.compass.com/marketing-center/editor/v2/flipbook/51b20e62-d9de-463b-8408-25de1cc3fc24?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=639361753a31090001f06a04&utm_source=5b647f2e32e833402fbf8223&abe=0&agent_id=5b647f2e32e833402fbf8223
→ Free Home Valuation: maxarmour.com/home-valuation
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Max Armour
Luxury Real Estate Advisor · Compass
(415) 290-6058
maxarmour.com
891 Beach St, San Francisco CA 94109
Over $2.5 Billion in Sales · Top 1% of SF Agents · CA DRE# 01446122
Max Armour is a real estate agent affiliated with Compass. Compass is a licensed California real estate broker (CA DRE# 01527235). All material is intended for informational purposes only and compiled from sources deemed reliable but not verified. If your property is currently listed, this is not a solicitation.
