Select macro-economic and demographic data for the country and the Bay Area – June 2026
The Bay Area housing market hit a lot of national headlines in May. In San Francisco, AI and tech-driven demand has created aggressive bidding wars on the scarce inventory. Skyrocketing rents are back in the norm. Even the city’s condo market, which has been under pressure for six years, is showing signs of demand recovery.
For the first time in many years job creation in the Bay Area is positive and economic opportunity is attracting net inbound migration, despite the region’s chronic shortage of homes and affordability issues. It’s notable that other tech cities like Seattle and Austin are not seeing the boom in the real estate market related to AI. In fact, those cities are now sending more people to San Francisco than the reverse.
While the city dominates the headlines, many areas have not seen the massive wealth effect driving home buying demand like the city has. In this cycle, this resurgent demand is so far concentrated to a very small section in the city, and luxury markets in Peninsula and Marin.
For much of the region, interest rates matter more than stock market performance. In May, mortgage rates jumped higher with sharply higher inflation data. That tension between higher interest rates and the wealth effect is likely to continue for the rest of 2026. Inflation pressures have been pushing higher, and it seems unlikely that interest rates will dip again very soon.
Here's a snapshot of the SF housing market as of June 2026:
Prices
- Median sale price: ~$1.7M (last 3 months), up ~16% YoY
- SF County median reached $2.13M in April 2026, up ~19.5% YoY
- Median price per sq ft: ~$1,140, up ~12.5% YoY
- Average home value : ~$1.27M, up ~2% YoY (different methodology)
Market Conditions
- Homes sell in ~14 days on average
- Average of 4 offers per listing
- Unsold Inventory Index: just 1.2 months (very low supply)
- ~1,668 homes sold in May 2026, up from 1,448 in May 2025
The San Francisco real estate market heading into June 2026 is experiencing an absolute surge, specifically at the ultra-luxury tier. If your competitors are using standard market stats, they are completely missing the macro-forces driving the $20M+ segment right now.
The Ultra-Luxury Sector is Setting Records
While the broader U.S. housing market has been leveling off, San Francisco’s luxury tier is completely decoupling from national trends, largely fueled by the relentless AI sector boom, tech hiring, and upcoming IPO liquidity.
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The Data: Sales for high-end properties ($5M+) have seen historic year-over-year jumps, with luxury pending sales spiking over 22%.
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Pricing Power: The median luxury sales price in the SF metro area has approached an all-time high of $6.8M+, with single-family home prices in prime districts jumping significantly year-over-year.
A Savage "Inventory Drought"
The defining characteristic of the current market is a severe, systemic lack of premium inventory. Active high-end single-family listings are down roughly 15% year-over-year.
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There is a massive, highly liquid pool of affluent buyers chasing a vanishingly small number of immaculate, turn-key architectural homes.
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Because available inventory is so inadequate to meet the demand of specialized buyer mandates, premium properties are getting snapped up immediately.
Velocity is at an All-Time High
The luxury market is moving at a pace we haven't seen in years. The median days on market for luxury properties has plummeted to just 12 to 13 days, making San Francisco the fastest-moving luxury market in the United States. Furthermore, roughly 85% of highly desirable single-family homes are selling over list price, with average overbids hitting jaw-dropping numbers.
These behaviors reflect heightened competition and demand in the luxury market, influenced by economic conditions and stock market performance.
--> Read more in the complete June Real Estate Report
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