National Real Estate Insight:
July 2024 Market Highlights
- Year over year, the July median single-family-home sales price and the median condo/co-op price were up 4.2% and 2.7% respectively: Both declined slightly from all-time highs in June.
- The supply of existing-home listings rose 20% year-over-year to the highest count since autumn 2020, while the number of new-construction single-family homes on the market was the highest since 2008. Price reductions on active listings in July jumped 43% year-over-year.
- Existing-home sales increased 3.5% from June and 4.6% from July 2023 but remained far below long-term norms.
- Approximately 62% of sales went into contract in less than 1 month (vs. 74% in July 2023), 24% sold over list price (vs. 35% last July), and 27% were purchased all-cash (vs. 26%). The median days-on-market to acceptance of offer was 24 days (vs. 20 days last July), and sold listings received an average of 2.7 offers (vs. 3). Distressed-property sales (foreclosures and short sales) remained extremely low at 1% of total sales.
- 20% of buyers waived the inspection contingency (vs. 26% last July), and 22% waived the appraisal contingency (unchanged). 15% of May-July contracts saw delays in scheduled close of escrow (vs. 14%), and 6% of contracts were terminated before close of escrow (unchanged).
As of August 22nd, the 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate, at just below 6.5%, was its lowest since May 2023, and the July inflation reading declined below 3% for the first time in over 3 years. Stock markets have seen enormous volatility since mid-July, first plummeting, then making up most of their losses in a dramatic August rebound. Consumer confidence has been virtually unchanged for 4 months: Up from 2022 lows, but still well below long-term norms.
Selected Insights from Outside Analysts
“We forecast mortgage rates to gradually decline in the coming quarters and anticipate a significant surge in homebuying demand, mainly from the first-time homebuyers left at the margins. However, the tight inventory is still expected to limit home sales. We expect home sales to increase modestly the remainder of the year and home prices to rise 2.1% in 2024.” Freddie Mac Research (FHLMC), 8/22/24
“Home sales are still sluggish," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.” National Association of Realtors, 8/22/24
“Presidential elections have little impact on home sales in the 5 months leading up to elections: The annual seasonal decline in home sales is no worse in election years than in non-election years, according to 35 years of data...home purchases are usually life decisions rather than political ones.” John Burns Research & Consulting, 7/30/24
“Investors made 23% of all single-family home purchases in June 2024, down 5 percentage points from January 2024. This is the lowest the investor share has been in two years, but is still well above pre-pandemic levels, when the investor share averaged 17%.” CoreLogic, 7/25/24
“U.S. rents remained stable in June, posting a year-over-year gain of 2.9%...Single-family rents have been bouncing around their pre-pandemic rate of growth of about 3% this year after growing by double digits for most of 2021 and 2022.” CoreLogic, 8/22/24
San Francisco August 2024 Market Report:
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Mid year San Francisco House & Condo Market Update:
Learn More -> Marin County Real Estate Market Report here
